Modeling the relative influence of socio-demographic variables on post-acute COVID-19 quality of life: an application to settings in Europe, Asia, Africa, and South America (preprint)

Long-term COVID-19 complications are a globally pervasive threat, but their plausible social drivers are often not prioritized. Here, we use data from a multinational consortium to quantify the relative contributions of social and clinical factors to differences in quality of life among participants experiencing long COVID and measure the extent to which social variables impacts can be attributed to clinical intermediates, across diverse contexts. In addition to age, neuropsychological and rheumatological comorbidities, educational attainment, employment status, and female sex were identified as important predictors of long COVID-associated quality of life days (long COVID QALDs). Furthermore, a great majority of their impacts on long COVID QALDs could not be tied to key long COVID-predicting comorbidities, such as asthma, diabetes, hypertension, psychological disorder, and obesity. In Norway, 90% (95% CI: 77%, 100%) of the effect of belonging to the highest versus lowest educational attainment quintile was not attributed to intermediate comorbidity impacts. The same was true for 86% (73%, 100%) of the protective effects of full-time employment versus all other employment status categories (excluding retirement) in the UK and 74% (46%,100%) of the protective effects of full-time employment versus all other employment status categories in a cohort of four middle-income countries (MIC). Of the effects of female sex on long COVID QALDs in Norway, UK, and the MIC cohort, 77% (46%,100%), 73% (52%, 94%), and 84% (62%, 100%) were unexplained by the clinical mediators, respectively. Our findings highlight that socio-economic proxies and sex may be as predictive of long COVID QALDs as commonly emphasized comorbidities and that broader structural determinants likely drive their impacts. Importantly, we outline a multi-method, adaptable causal machine learning approach for evaluating the isolated contributions of social disparities to long COVID quality of life experiences.

Multiplexed measurement of binding- and neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 variants in 12.000 post-vaccine sera (preprint)

Diagnostic assays currently used to monitor the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines measure levels of antibodies to the receptor-binding domain of ancestral SARS-CoV-2 (RBDwt). However, the predictive value for protection against new variants of concern (VOCs) has not been firmly established. Here, we used bead-based arrays and flow cytometry to measure binding of antibodies to spike proteins and receptor-binding domains (RBDs) from VOCs in 12,000 sera. Effects of sera on RBD-ACE2 interactions were measured as a proxy for neutralizing antibodies. The samples were obtained from healthy individuals or patients on immunosuppressive therapy who had received two to four doses of COVID-19 vaccines and from COVID-19 convalescents. The results show that anti-RBDwt titers correlate with the levels of binding- and neutralizing antibodies against the Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Omicron variants. The benefit of multiplexed analysis lies in the ability to measure a wide range of anti-RBD titers using a single dilution of serum for each assay. The reactivity patterns also yield an internal reference for neutralizing activity and binding antibody units per milliliter (BAU/ml). Results obtained with sera from vaccinated healthy individuals and patients confirmed and extended results from previous studies on time-dependent waning of antibody levels and effects of immunosuppressive agents. We conclude that anti-RBDwt titers correlate with levels of neutralizing antibodies against VOCs and propose that our method may be implemented to enhance the precision and throughput of immunomonitoring.

Breakthrough infections with the omicron and delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 result in similar re-activation of vaccine-induced immunity (preprint)

Background: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is now overtaking the Delta variant in many countries. Results showing that sera from double vaccinated individuals have minimal neutralizing activity against Omicron may indicate that the higher rate of transmission is due to evasion from vaccine-induced immunity. However, there is little information about activation of recall responses to Omicron in vaccinated individuals. Methods: We measured inflammatory mediators, antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid proteins, and spike peptide-induced release of interferon gamma in whole blood in 51 vaccinated individuals infected with Omicron, in 14 infected with Delta, and in 18 healthy controls. The median time points for the first and second samples were 7 and 14 days after symptom onset, respectively. Findings: Infection with Omicron or Delta led to a rapid and similar increase in antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid proteins and spike peptide-induced interferon gamma in whole blood. Both the Omicron and the Delta infected patients had a mild and transient increase in inflammatory parameters. Interpretation: The results suggest that vaccine-induced immunological memory yields similar coverage for the Omicron and Delta variants.

Superinfections in critically ill COVID-19 patients - an association with Dexamethasone? (preprint)

BacgroundSuper-infections in COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) on mechanical ventilation were initially reported to be rare. Little is known of their incidence after dexamethasone was introduced as standard care. We aimed to determine the incidence and characteristics of superinfections in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, and explore the possible impact of the introduction of dexamethasone as standard therapy. MethodsIn this national, multi-center, observational, retrospective study we included patients ≥ 18 years admitted from March 1 st 2020 to January 31 st 2021 with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed SARSCoV-2 infection treated with invasive mechanical ventilation. Data was collected from electronic health records. Patient characteristics, clinical findings, microbiology, length of stay and 90-day survival were examined with backwards stepwise multiple regression. Results155 patients (115 men, mean age 62 years, range 26-84 years) were included. 73 patients (47%) had a total of 101 superinfections where pneumonia dominated (70%). Superinfections were more commonly observed in patients receiving dexamethasone (67% vs 30%, p<0.0001), and in patients with pre-existing autoimmune disease (18% vs 5%, p<0.01). Invasive fungal infections were reported exclusively in dexamethasone-treated patients [9/72 (13%) vs 0/83 (0%), p<0.0001]. There was no difference in 90-day survival between patients with and patients without superinfections (64% versus 73%, p=0.238). In multiple regression analysis, superinfection was associated with dexamethasone use [OR 5.35 (2.62–11.35), p<0.001], pre-existing autoimmune disease [OR 4.90 (1.50–19.4), p=0.008] and higher lymphocyte count at the time of admission [OR 2.31 (1.23–4.86), p=0.009]. ConclusionIn critically ill COVID-19 patients receiving invasive ventilation, introduction of dexamethasone as standard of care was strongly and independently associated with superinfections. A focus on this complication is warranted when studying alternative anti-inflammatory therapy.

Age-dependent impact of the major common genetic risk factor for COVID-19 on severity and mortality (preprint)

Background: There is considerable variability in COVID-19 outcomes amongst younger adults and some of this variation may be due to genetic predisposition. We characterized the clinical implications of the major genetic risk factor for COVID-19 severity, and its age-dependent effect, using individual-level data in a large international multi-centre consortium. Method: The major common COVID-19 genetic risk factor is a chromosome 3 locus, tagged by the marker rs10490770. We combined individual level data for 13,424 COVID-19 positive patients (N=6,689 hospitalized) from 17 cohorts in nine countries to assess the association of this genetic marker with mortality, COVID-19-related complications and laboratory values. We next examined if the magnitude of these associations varied by age and were independent from known clinical COVID-19 risk factors. Findings: We found that rs10490770 risk allele carriers experienced an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.6) and COVID-19 related mortality (HR 1.5, 95%CI 1.3-1.8). Risk allele carriers had increased odds of several COVID-19 complications: severe respiratory failure (odds ratio [OR] 2.0, 95%CI 1.6-2.6), venous thromboembolism (OR 1.7, 95%CI 1.2-2.4), and hepatic injury (OR 1.6, 95%CI 1.2-2.0). Risk allele carriers [≤] 60 years had higher odds of death or severe respiratory failure (OR 2.6, 95%CI 1.8-3.9) compared to those > 60 years OR 1.5 (95%CI 1.3-1.9, interaction p-value=0.04). Amongst individuals [≤] 60 years who died or experienced severe respiratory COVID-19 outcome, we found that 31.8% (95%CI 27.6-36.2) were risk variant carriers, compared to 13.9% (95%CI 12.6-15.2%) of those not experiencing these outcomes. Prediction of death or severe respiratory failure among those [≤] 60 years improved when including the risk allele (AUC 0.82 vs 0.84, p=0.016) and the prediction ability of rs10490770 risk allele was similar to, or better than, most established clinical risk factors. Interpretation: The major common COVID-19 risk locus on chromosome 3 is associated with increased risks of morbidity and mortality and these are more pronounced amongst individuals [≤] 60 years. The effect on COVID-19 severity was similar to, or larger than most established risk factors, suggesting potential implications for clinical risk management. Funding: Funding was obtained by each of the participating cohorts individually.

Blood neurofilament light concentration at admittance: a potential prognostic marker in COVID-19 (preprint)

ObjectiveTo test the hypotheses that blood concentrations of neurofilament light chain protein (NfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAp) can serve as biomarkers for disease severity in COVID-19 patients. MethodsForty-seven inpatients with confirmed COVID-19 had blood samples drawn on admission for assessing serum biomarkers of CNS injury by Single molecule array (Simoa). Concentrations of NfL and GFAp were analyzed in relation to symptoms, clinical signs, inflammatory biomarkers and clinical outcomes. We used multivariate linear models to test for differences in biomarker concentrations in the subgroups, accounting for confounding effects. ResultsIn total, 21 % (n = 10) of the patients were admitted to an intensive care unit, whereas the overall mortality rate was 13 % (n = 6). Non-survivors had higher serum concentrations of NfL than patients who were discharged alive both in adjusted analyses (p = 2.6 x 10-7) and unadjusted analyses (p = 0.001). Serum concentrations of GFAp were significantly higher in non-survivors than survivors in adjusted analyses (p = 0.02). The NfL concentrations in non-survivors increased over repeated measurements, whereas the concentrations in survivors were stable. Significantly higher concentrations of NfL were found in patients reporting fatigue, while reduced concentrations were found in patients experiencing cough, myalgia and joint pain. ConclusionIncreased concentrations of NfL and GFAp in COVID-19 patients on admission may indicate increased mortality risk. Measurement of blood biomarkers for nervous system injury can be useful to detect and monitor CNS injury in COVID-19.

What is the recovery rate and risk of long-term consequences following a diagnosis of COVID-19? - A harmonised, global longitudinal observational study (preprint)

Introduction Very little is known about possible clinical sequelae that may persist after resolution of the acute Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). A recent longitudinal cohort from Italy including 143 patients recovered after hospitalisation with COVID-19 reported that 87% had at least one ongoing symptom at 60 day follow-up. Early indications suggest that patients with COVID-19 may need even more psychological support than typical ICU patients. The assessment of risk factors for longer term consequences requires a longitudinal study linked to data on pre-existing conditions and care received during the acute phase of illness. Methods and analysis This is an international open-access prospective, observational multi-site study. It will enrol patients following a diagnosis of COVID-19. Tier 1 is developed for following up patients day 28 post-discharge, additionally at 3 to 6 months intervals. This module can be used to identify sub-sets of patients experiencing specific symptomatology or syndromes for further follow up. A Tier 2 module will be developed for in-clinic, in-depth follow up. The primary aim is to characterise physical consequences in patients post-COVID-19. Secondary aim includes estimating the frequency of and risk factors for post-COVID- 19 medical sequalae, psychosocial consequences and post-COVID-19 mortality. A subset of patients will have sampling to characterize longer term antibody, innate and cell-mediated immune responses to SARS-CoV-2. Ethics and dissemination This collaborative, open-access study aims to characterize the frequency of and risk factors for long-term consequences and characterise the immune response over time in patients following a diagnosis of COVID-19 and facilitate standardized and longitudinal data collection globally. The outcomes of this study will inform strategies to prevent long term consequences; inform clinical management, direct rehabilitation, and inform public health management to reduce overall morbidity and improve outcomes of COVID-19.

Increased Interleukin-6 and Macrophage Chemoattractant Protein-1 are associated with Respiratory Failure in COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: In SARS-CoV-2 infection there is an urgent need to identify patients that will progress to severe COVID-19 and may benefit from targeted treatment.Objectives: Analyze plasma cytokines in COVID-19 patients and investigate their association with respiratory failure (RF) and treatment in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Method: Hospitalized patients (n=34) with confirmed COVID-19 were recruited into a prospective cohort study. Clinical data and blood samples were collected at inclusion and after 2-5 and 7-10 days. RF was defined as PaO2/FiO2 ratio (P/F) <40kPa. Plasma cytokines were analyzed by a Human Cytokine 27-plex assay. Measurements and Results: COVID-19 patients with RF and/or treated in ICU showed overall increased systemic cytokine levels. Plasma IL-6, IL-8, G-CSF, MCP-1, MIP-1α levels were negatively correlated with P/F, whereas combinations of IL-6, IP-10, IL-1ra and MCP-1 showed the best association with RF in ROC analysis (AUC 0.79-0.80, p<0.05). During hospitalization the decline was most significant for IP-10 (P<0.001). Conclusion: Elevated levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines were present in patients with severe COVID-19. IL-6 and MCP-1 were inversely correlated with P/F with the largest AUC in ROC analyses and should be further explored as biomarkers to identify patients at risk for severe RF and as targets for improved treatment strategies.